The Antique Shop prices are clearly unrealistic - what is?

is my resident guru on weapon value

I’ll make a price check:

« I wouldn’t buy for more than 20m because they suck as weapons, but if selling wait for that collector willing to pay 500m in 2026 »

what do you mean, this isn’t a price check?

The problem with price checking things these days is that nothing high end is being bought or sold really. So it's all theory. Ultimately things are things sell when what someone is offering meets what someone is willing to take.

In large markets with many participants, these can usually be shown by nice smooth supply and demand curves that as supply slowly drops price slowly rises. However on subeta supply is very low and demand is very low, which leads to very choppy/jerky supply demand curves, that often don't intersect at all leading to long periods of no sales at all.

Most sales that I have seen are done non-competatively which also isn't useful for really figuring out what you should price or buy something at. What usually happens is someone makes a price check board, and then that person gets a smail from someone with an offer, and they take that offer on the spot. Things often sell for hundreds of millions less than what would probably otherwise been offered if there was a public auction. But these flash sales end up quoted as "the price" and the next one flash sales for the same thing even though there are people out there offering much more.

On these 2 items in particular I have put them in trades multiple times over the last several years, and they never get a single smail asking about them. I think there is basically no interest in them until they are put in a shop and can be bought cheap.

I think if you put them in a shop they will sell for 100mil within hours to days, by someone who intends to sell them for 300mil+ sometime down the line. They are worthless as weapons, they are worthless as wearables. The only reason for someone to buy them is as a collection or an investment.

Price checks on high end items are basically unanswerable questions, because there are almost never 2+ buyers or 2+ sellers to ever actually form a real market.

That being said as much as insane poopoos the strategy of buying for x and selling for 80-90% of the shop price sometime down the line, it has been a highly effective strategy in less pricey markets, and I think the theory will pan out on higher end items in the very long run as well. I think that 5+ years down the line, those items will sell for close to their antique shop prices. If your planning on making an investment over 5+ years on a site that until very recently looked like it was going to die within the next 5 months, your cost basis better be low.

TLDR: There is no subeta market anymore, nothing sells. Sell it for what you feel comfortable selling it for, knowing that if you put it in your shop at 100mil it will probably sell, and if you put them in trades you will probably not get a single mail. Long term they will approach their AS prices.

You might be confusing price check threads (what can I buy or sell this for right now?) with your master’s thesis

which is a far more delicate exercise than to say the price is anywhere from 100m to 750 in the next 5 years

Thanks for the help, all! I'm keen to sell both and am very open to offers, but I'm in no hurry to sell.

The only data behind these items is that they don't sell when put in trades, and there is minimal interest.

So there are 2 options:

1. Put it in the shop for 100mil, and someone who plans on selling it for 300-500mil somewhere down the line buys it up. Or,
2. Hold onto it yourself until someone wants to buy it for 300-500mil in the future (which is going to be a long way off).

If you need the sP, take the 100mil. If you don't hold it. Most people don't end up needing the sP that badly when they make these boards.

This same thing can probably be said about nearly any high end item. If they increase shop search price to 1 billion, overnight items would inflate, just like they did when it went from 50 to 100mil.

Maybe don’t price check an item if you have no data?

1. I have data from years of putting the items in question up for sale myself with no smails about it, that is data.
2. I was tediously upfront about my methodology with the limited data we have.