Faceless Makeup Kit, Cash Shop, Rarity 125

I understand the item is super new, but it freaks me out and I don't want it haha

Not available in shops, and since posting the only place to find this item is on the trading post - - one of two available is mine. The other user simply requests other makeup kits.

I'd assume this is worth a pretty penny but I don't want to unnecessarily inflate the item. Plus, it is a cash shop thing so I am not too well versed in translating value to sP. I reckon the kits themselves are at ~24 mil but certainly the price fluctuates to represent the rarity of a specific kit?

Thanks for your help. ❤️

[edit] I really messed up the math in the post [edit]

I'm opening this up with a HUGE disclaimer that I am not 100% sure I know how that morostide make up case works. My understanding is that you open it and out of a pool of 119 items, you get 2-4 items (probably an average of 3). I don't know if it pulls from the entire list of 119 items, and I don't know if the newer items are weighted higher.

Thats an interesting item, the expected value on opening that make up kit appears to have probably been negative before the release of the 5 new ones. I didn't run the math on the expected value, I just sampled about 10 of the 119 items and it seems like the EV is about 4mil worth of stuff per box.

That means that if someone specifically wants that make up kit, they need to basically open them until they get one that they actually want, and there is only a 4% chance of opening one of the new kits and an average of 2 shots per kit, which means that if someone actively wants that make up kit they would need to spend about 2000 CSC to get one, meaning that it would potentially be worth ~250mil.

I usually just price at like 50 m and if it sells it sells I mean you can prob go higher and just wait a few days if its not selling go down a few million and so on :D Its up to you if you want it to sell quick you prob could get a quick 25-30m or you can just wait until someone else posts theirs in the shop and sells but someone might post it too low so its a gamble :D.

I really messed up the math in the previous post, I did a quick edit, but I think I need to go back and look it over again.

If people made rationale decisions on weather to buy or not, I think 200-250 would be the price I would peg it at right now, base on my understanding of the mechanics of the MMK. these type of things generally get overbought though, so it would definitely have the chance of going down from there.

- - yes, a gamble....................the best AND worst part about these things. I'll try to hold off on a quicksale since I don't wanna lose the opportunity to $$profit$$

first off, nice avatar!!, second of all: wow thank you!!! You're perfectly correct on the whole premise and I had no idea the pool was 119 items. The math may have not been precise in your post but the explanation truly helped. Especially, since, as I previously mentioned, I had absolutely no idea the size of the item pool; having one of the newer items among all of the saturated items is nifty. :>

omg I am glad you didn't listen to me and sovereign posted because I didn't even know there was that much items either :D I usually never asks prices on here and well I prob would of lost profit if I ever had those newer items. Good luck selling and hope you make lots of monies

I can almost guarantee you that you will not get that much money for it. 50mil, maybe, but I have never seen any of the makeup kits sell for more than that, not even the most popular ones, and this is one kit that I don't anticipate being particularly popular (since it's not a cute or pretty one). It's nice to think that because of the odds of getting that particular kit you'd get a large sum for it, but that's just not how it actually works in reality. D:

This is an entirely new thing though: There is a random chance bag, that has an extremely negative expected value, with 5 lottery ticket items.

It is much cheaper to pay someone 250mil than to shell out that much at a chance at that (and a chance at going broke in the process)

These will likely stay as incredibly rare items compared to any of the other items, even if they do have an equal chance.

The morostide makeup kits have always worked like this, though. Yes, the odds for these new makeup kits are slightly lower since there are more items than when the kit was first released, but other new makeup kits are already selling for under 50 mil. I really do not anticipate this one will ever make it over that.

Sliced is the cheapest of the new kits, at 18M, Ribbon is the most expensive of the priced new ones, at 38M

I'd price Faceless around the same price as Stained Glass, which is 29M.

Faceless isn't as desirable as Sheep originally was. The big problem with it is that it doesn't layer good with most facial features. It's gimmicky, so it's going to be interesting for a while, but in the end, Storm and Stained Glass will be the best investments, absolutely not Faceless.

The ones that will explode in value are these two. If someone has 250M to invest in makeup kits, they're better off investing in the ones that can be used outside of Morostide.

Your looking at this from a pure demand side right now, and not a supply side.

MMKs have a negative expected value, there are only a handful available on the market. So if I were want to go get that item, I would need to open a TON of worthless MMKs to get to it., maybe it takes 3, maybe it takes 30, but on average it would be much cheaper for me to offer 100-250mil to someone who already has one, than to go and try to buy one myself.

You might not sell it tomorrow for 250mil, but I think it can catch up, and no way in hell would I sell that thing for buyable on the shop search unless more popped uped up in trades

There are a lot of them in wardrobes already. You can't gauge the supply with wearables, because when most people get them, they instantly throw them in their wardrobe, and when they don't use them - they remove them and sell them. Like, I'd estimate there are around 20 or so around in wardrobes already

This is the thing with wearables - you can't gauge how many are around, but it's often a good slice of the market. There are often a lot more popping out, especially around Luminaire, because people are keen on selling items they don't use that often, or can't make work with that kind of wearable.

There is zero reason to pay anywhere over 30M for a makeup kit, let alone one that isn't that versatile. Hell, I thought it layered good with what I had in mind, and figure out it doesn't, so I'll probably remove it from my own wishlist.

It will most likely not retire before the end of the Black Friday Sale, and even if the box retires before - it comes back next year.

If you were to tell me there were only 20 of an item for sale, that gets it a price tag of 250 automatically in my book. And it is dumb to open more MMKs, making it pseudo retired. It doesn't matter if it is retired or not, you would have to be an idiot to open one if you actually do the math on them.

Fortunately people that open those things very rarely do the math on them, and chance bag items are often overbought.

30mil appears to be something you just plucked out of your head on what you think is fair for it, but completely ignores a LOT about the realities of producing one of the items.

You do not need to get an exact number of them available on the site, many people treat their wardrobes as if they were collections, and turn their wardrobes into black holes, and you can essentially treat them as gone from the site. Just like when I do a gallery search and Eric has the only 1 in galleries, I know that is completely removed from the market, and can treat it as an non factor.

Until I see more of a potential market on the item develop, which 3+ on trades, or any on shop search, I would say this thing is rare, unlikely to have many more enter the market, and incredibly expensive to produce, and should demand a higher price tag.

If one shows up on shop search, I personally will consider grabbing it.

Why would Faceless sell for 250M while Stained Glass, same year, same odds, is at 30M? And Ribbon is 40M? And Sliced is 20M?

They all have the same odds of coming out of the box, have been released on the same day, in the same way.

1. They are potentially underpriced as well.
2. People seem to be over opening the MMKs for a reason, seems like that reason is probably the faceless. The way I interpret this pattern would be that most people are opening MMKs until they get the faceless, and then selling the rest as unwanted.
3. maybe faceless is weighted lower? (unlikely)

I'm not saying that someone will definitely pay 250 of the thing, but looking at the currently available data, you would have to be crazy to just say - thats probably worth the same as the others price it at 30-50mil. If people keep over opening MMKs eventually more will show up on search and the market will work its way out. However, right now there are 2 for sale, and they are incredibly expensive to produce more.

2/3 of the people listing Ribbon make up kit in trades are asking for faceless.

Ribbon is one sale away from being UB on shop search, and if the person only chose that price based on the logic you are using, that could be undervalued as well (but there are 3 on trades in addition to the shop search, so that seems less likely to me.)

They are underpriced!!! Buy them and sell them for 250m

It's an item not worth the price. Mostly because more will open and next year new ones will come too. The year after that there will be more. You don't even have to go that much longer. By Xmas there will be plenty in usershops already. You just can't shell that kind of money on something you will know it will devalue harshly next year.

fewer and fewer of the things will be opened each year as they dilute further and further the odds of getting a new item

It doesn't make sense! If the odds keep on increase then more will be open. There is always those people that are willing to pay any amount to obtain the new item. You can see a bunch of people with lots of makeup and this happens every year. You are telling me the make up from 1 year ago are worth 225m and 2 years ago 200m.... since the odds were high those years too, just a bit less.

I paid 200csc for mine so yeah just leaving this here

They already removed some of the older, valueless items. There's probably about the same amount in there right now as there was when it was released.

I'm not going to argue about the price though. Given how these kits have sold in the past and continue to sell, I truly believe that this will never surpass 30-50 mil. From a pure mathematical standpoint it could be worth more, but certainly not in reality. Not how the wearable market works. I give it a week or two before this kit is for sale in shops.