Try to help me understand then. ;) What I think you're saying is, a person who turns in 5 amulets and gets 0 tomes may feel defeated. But a person who takes time out to buy/hoard/turn in a lot of amulets in one shot, will get rewarded with tomes. But the amount to buy amulets may outweigh the benefits.

The 16% is from including your 1999 amulet '13-'14 report. Without it, the chance of getting a tome goes down to 5%, because of the 85 cases I've collected thus far, only 4 out of the 85 are tomes.

However, the 349 out of your 1999 is approx. 17%. Your '08-'09 report also approximates out to 17%.

I've been pondering on that "flavor of the day" too. But finding out which flavor Mage is in the mood for each day could cause unnecessary spikes in amulet prices.

So, 48 total amulets, 9 tomes. Thank you for the data! x3

Thank you for the data

So far, it's looking to be maybe a 1 in 7 chance, or 17% likelihood of getting a tome. It appears to be a very accurate percentage thus far, but I still need at least 739 more reports.

When you mega-boosted your one pet this past year, did you turn in lots of amulets by any chance? Adding you to the sample would help with the overall numbers.

1 in 7 should be lower than 17 percent. More like 14.2 percent. 1 in 6 is about 16.6 or 17 percent.

Also, odds and "one in n" uses different formulas. The definition of odds can be confusing. For 1:6, it actually means 6 shards and 1 tome. Not 6 amulets yield 1 tome.

I noticed that different batches of amulet types yield different results, although they could just simply correspond to the values that the (pseudo) random number generator is pumping out.

I have turned in more then 10k amulets. I dont know what happened to the highscores table for it, Ive been sad to see its not there. But I am positive its well over 10k amulets...

Honestly heres my stats.

112 amulets at one time. 14 of each amulet. I always run with this amount never less. If I go more its for 2 reasons.

One of which being I double that and go 28 each type.

Second of which is I never end on a shard. So if I get to my last one and its a shard then I keep adding more of each to the inventory and using them till I get a tome. Your already invested so might as well keep going till you get the tome.

Also I never do 2 amulets of the same type back to back. Does it help? Idk but for me it does.

Full out stats Average 1 out of 5. I typically get 18-30 tomes per 112 amulets. The best I have done is 52. The worst is like 8. You cant always win and remember, the recycle beast asks for shards....

With all that said, It does appear to be random. But I think there is a percentage to it. I have tried using like 40 of one amulet and ended up with like 12 tomes. I count failures and keep track of every tome while I am going through the 112.

^i honestly think that the mage uses a RNG so whether you turn in 800 death amulets or 100 of each type should (key word: should) not make a difference.

It should also be noted that IF it did get changed, it must have been relatively recent, ie within the last month or two.

This is all based on memory. I turned in over 1k in November and got a 1 in ~7.2 rate. And i turned in 1.5k in September and had a 1 in ~5.9 rate.

Reports of consistently low results of notability seem to be of recent times. With that in mind, it could be possible that the tome ratio may have been altered not too long ago. Recent amulet turn ins would be the most acceptable data.

Yup. Recent data is the most useful and appreciated ones.

thats why i noted that I feel the change, IF it did occur, must be recent. My data from Sept & Nov was to show that even not too long ago, the rates where good. :)

Not to nitpick, but I don't think Chi square really counts as a stat. (LOL -- that was just for the stat nerds)

Today it was 5 amulets= 4 shards, 1 tome happy joy joy dance

Today I turned in one life amulet and got a shard.

@ Rocketlauncher My mistake, you're correct. 1 in 7 is roughly 14%.

@ bonita It's only used for nominal data, which in this case are mage amulets, the result belongs to one of two categories. xD But yes, parametric procedures is the preferred design.

@ Andrew @ MrCool I'll eliminate Alex's 1999 amulets from this sample then. I can still use his data to compare for any changes. If you both have any data saved within the last 2 months, sMail it to me so I can add it in. ^^

@ brandon If you have saved any data within the last 3 months, sMail it to me. It would be incredibly useful. ^^ I think there's a percentage too, but perhaps I'll have to alter my hypothesis to test for a "flavor of the day".

For now though, I'm just testing for any recent changes in the amulet-to-tome/shard rate.

I have recently turned in 7 amulets and have gotten 2 tomes and 5 shards.

By recently, I mean with the amulets I've gotten from Quentin quests the past couple of weekend quests.

I've always preferred T-tests and oneways. You know, real statistics. XP

Turned in one magma amulet and got a shard.

11 Amulets = 1 Tome, 10 Shards today :c

(still beats the time I turned in -15- and received shards for all of them.. guhh)

Same, same. ^^ I'll probably be designing those in my upcoming spring semester--essentially part 2 of my psychology research/design class. I figured though while I'm on vacation, I can practice via Subeta. xD

thank you! data added

1713 amulets to go

I have no data saved. I save the amulet to tome count each time I go through some to keep track of how its going in the process. I just did 112 because thats all the sp I had to buy amulets lol XD Broke... And the results were good. Here are the counts

Ok say I got to the 5th amulet used and it was a tome, I put 5. Because even though I got a tome there, You have to count that has an amulet because you used it. Here are my counts

3 4 4 8 6 4 1 3 12 3 7 1 3 1 1 2 2 5 2 8 5 7 14

I got 23 tomes. Out of actually 108 amulets. Ended up being a 4.69 rate.

so...23 tomes out of 108 amulets--thus 85 shards? Just double-checking. So according to your list, on the 3rd amulet you have listed first, that's actually when you got a tome out of it, correct? And so on and so forth?

100 amulets today = 16 tomes

Hey now i say id help out.

I just turned in 400 amulets. 50 per element.

60 tomes. 340 amulets

I wish you the best of luck with that! It sounds challenging. Let me know if I can help -- anything short of calculating multiple regression by hand. LOL

Correct. Every number listed was a tome and then the count restarted and then a tome on the next number of amulet. So 3rd amulet was a tome, and then the 4th amulet after that.

shard, shard, tome, shard, shard, shard, tome, shard, shard, shard, tome. So if you see a one, that means I got tomes back to back.