LOL I love the one that made the bear speech all eloquent!! XD If you can't figure it out, make it fancy and clever and hope for the best! hehe Like with number three, I thought really hard about turning that into something cheeky where each letter stood for a word in a long tirade about giving the shishin a sugar high because even with the link clue I couldn't figure it out. I just thought, rail? like a train, banister, or yelling at someone? ... Really glad a teammate figured that one out! haha ^_^ Thanks for posting the answers tosses armour polish

OH, honey--it's the other way round. Cryptogram is a type of Cipher.

As much as I appreciate after the fact--"I know I'm right anyway, even though I got it wrong"--arguments, in this case, game theory doesn't matter in the face of the mathematical breakdown.

Here are the odds on the "Silver shot."

The best first shot will depend on how the other two archers act.

If Gold and Silver choose their target randomly (with an even distribution - i.e. 50% at each available target) then shooting at Silver is our best first shot, with these odds:

1. shoot at no one - win 15/72
2. shoot at Silver - win 16/72 (BEST)
3. shoot at Gold - win 10/72

Now, 16/72 breaks down to a percentage of .0030864..., which is pretty dang small.

However, if Gold and Silver always take their best shot, then shooting at no one is the best first shot choice, since the odds of survival work out as:

1. shoot at no one - we win 15/36 (BEST)
2. shoot at Silver - we win 13/36
3. shoot at Gold - we win 10/36

15/36 breaks down to a percentage of .41666...still small, but definitely better.

I realize it's very fashionable to attempt to shred the person in charge for the "error of her ways," but occasionally, she might just possibly have thought something through.

Who knew??

I think that's a complicated way of looking at it.

I just went with the simple route, play the fool, let them at each other and then have a 1/3 chance of taking out the victor. the odds are never in your favor but you CAN play them to the best of your abilities.

actually I got it right and shot in the air with an explanation of why the odds are better as they have at each other. the Third riddle was the one that had me stumped until I used the link clue on it. ^^;

as I said there is a game show riddle that uses the same principle.

there are 3 doors, two have goats behind them (and you get the goat!!!!) one has a car.

the odds of getting the car are 1/3 if you pick the door first BUT if you allow the other contestant to pick first you are left with two doors and the odds of picking the car increase to 2/3 (not 1/2 like you would think!) there was a long mathematical explanation for it.... but I'm old and can't remember it ^^;

WOOHOO! That's SO awesome!! phew I worked so hard to figure that one out xD I refused to let it go, if anyone can speak Bear, it should be me but I couldn't make heads or tails of it until searching for odd definations of the word "must" took me to an Old English dictionary.

must (m?st) The quality or condition of being stale or musty.

cold: Dead - as in 'lying cold and stiff in a coffin'

After I discovered "must" was also a moldy/dusky odor and dead was an alternative for cold, a cold rind must have been referring to rotten/dead figs. Since 'helped by pain' was her next phrase and we all know what happens when we eat fruit we shouldn't what I came up with made perfect sense to me xD

I stared at that for hours and not once did I see the"really real" solution in there, now that it's posted, I'm not sure how I missed it !

: You mean how you "mussed" it... ( lol ) OK, I'm better now...

16/72 is 22.22% No idea where .0030864 came from. Hoping the odds are in your favor -- that the archers will go after each other -- isn't permissible unless it's stated in the problem. 15/36 is only better compared to 16/72 if it's just as likely and these are the only two possibilities. The idea of averaging /all/ possible permutations yields you better off shooting at Silver (though yes, overall your odds are worse, because you're getting shot at when they could shoot someone else), and includes the possibility that gives you 15/36 chance of winning as one of the variations.

They could, for example, shoot at you first because you're the new guy and what makes you think you have any right to be playing?

In that scenario, you get the following You shoot no one: 100% chance you die -- if Gold misses, then Silver is sure to hit. You shoot Gold: 100% chance you die because Silver kills you dead. You shoot Silver: I forget how to do limits, but out of the 1/3 chance of hitting you have 1/6 chance of winning the next shot, plus 1/18 the chance after that, plus 1/52, and so on. 12.76%, assuming I did the math right (because there's no chance that Gold will aim for Silver with you around...nor that Silver will aim for Gold before he kills you).

Please lock this, dear. This one is really over. :)