What is the key to knowing how close you actually are? I feel like im always close. lol

As far as I can tell, there is no key. Per This thread (and the older threads it links to) the treasure is one pixel. To my knowledge, we have no information on what the various ending messages mean in terms of how close you are to the treasure, but with the target being so small, IMO it doesn't matter - it's going to be luck that you click on the exact correct pixel anyway.

I also don't know details of the prize table. The point of this thread is to demystify part of that (what is a 'rare item') but even within the set of known rare items, some are much rarer than others.

tl;dr pray lol

Thank you so much i was wondering so if i come across something i know the significance of whether it could go on this post and how likely. Thanks!

Ah, finding things that fit in this post is much simpler! If you go to the Achievements page under Gaming, the Fishing Expert achievement has a count that goes up every time you get a rare item. Everyone in this thread is manually checking the achievements page when we win something unusual and bringing it here if it counts.

TBH, based on the https://www.subetalodge.us/list_all/sort/userprice-desc/rlow/160/rhigh/160/excludeub/true/notes/Game+Prize%3A+obtained+from+Fishing">Subetalodge list of all possible prizes I think we have a good chunk of the items that count for the achievement, but I want confirmation on the expensive items not yet listed.