The Baking Kit gives out the ingredients for a level one baked good (maple cookies or the pudding in this case) as well as a few random baking ingredients. So you have a chance at getting baking powder, but it's not a guarantee. We've been giving out baking ingredients via quests though to help get some of the prices down for things (especially since some people have to bake for the raffle). :)

No, you just have to attempt to bake something. So a user could pick any one of the recipes.