Nope! Melody trumps holiday rarity. ;)
Not that I’m aware of? I can double check with one of our programmers though to make sure it doesn’t happen.
Also to answer your edit! Yeah, the holiday rarity is kind of a catch all for the floating items, ToT items, pumpkin patch, etc. :)
We toyed with giving things like that their own rarity but if we had, it would have quickly spiraled out of control. We wanted set categories that made sense and could fit a good chunk of items in each. The Holiday rarity also includes things from shops like Gunter's shop (alegarten items) and Fireside things like bonfire items or floaters.